2026 · No Federal Tax Credit · NREL + EIA Data
Solar Panels in Vermont: Cost, Payback & ROI (2026)
Is solar still worth it in Vermont after the 30% federal tax credit expired? These pre-computed estimates use NREL PVWatts production data and current 21.5¢/kWh Vermont electricity rates for a typical home using 900 kWh/month.
Section 25D (30% federal solar tax credit) expired December 31, 2025
All numbers below reflect 2026 math with no federal residential credit. State incentives, where applicable, are noted in the section below.
Vermont Solar at a Glance
Based on a 900 kWh/month home ($194/mo electric bill at 21.5¢/kWh), 100% offset, no state rebate applied.
9.2 kW
For 900 kWh/month home
$27,000
At $2.95/W (LBNL 2024 avg)
10.6 years
Without state rebate
$2,322
Estimated annual savings
$74,256
Cumulative before rebate
$47,256
Savings minus system cost
21.5¢/kWh
above average vs. 16.0¢ U.S. avg · EIA 2025
1,180 kWh/kW/yr
limited · 3.6 peak sun hrs/day · NREL PVWatts
Is Solar Worth It in Vermont in 2026?
Vermont's 21.5¢/kWh electricity rate makes solar competitive despite the state's relatively low annual sun hours. Vermont has been a national leader in distributed solar policy with strong net metering rules and Green Mountain Power's innovative battery storage programs. The state's focus on building decarbonization pairs well with solar + heat pump installations.
For a typical Vermont home consuming 900 kWh per month, our calculation shows a 9.2 kW system needed for 100% offset. At the current national average installed cost of $2.95/W (LBNL Tracking the Sun 2024), that's $27,000 gross before any state rebates. Year-one savings of $2,322 grow each year as electricity rates escalate — the model assumes 2.5%/year (EIA AEO 2024).
The 10.6 years payback period is moderate — within the national average range of 8–12 years. Over 25 years — the standard warranty period for most premium panels — a Vermont homeowner following this profile would save an estimated $74,256 total, for a net benefit of $47,256 after recovering the system cost.
Year-by-Year Savings Snapshot: First 10 Years
Based on 9.2 kW system, 0.5%/yr degradation, 2.5%/yr rate escalation, no state rebate.
| Year | Production (kWh) | Annual Savings | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 10,800 | $2,322 | $2,322 |
| Year 2 | 10,746 | $2,368 | $4,690 |
| Year 3 | 10,692 | $2,415 | $7,105 |
| Year 4 | 10,639 | $2,463 | $9,569 |
| Year 5 | 10,586 | $2,512 | $12,081 |
| Year 6 | 10,533 | $2,562 | $14,643 |
| Year 7 | 10,480 | $2,613 | $17,256 |
| Year 8 | 10,428 | $2,665 | $19,921 |
| Year 9 | 10,375 | $2,718 | $22,639 |
| Year 10 | 10,324 | $2,772 | $25,411 |
System cost to recover: $27,000. Table shows savings without state rebate applied. Use the interactive calculator to enter your actual bill and any rebate.
Solar Incentives in Vermont (2026)
Green Mountain Power offers lease-to-own battery storage programs for customers who want to pair solar with backup storage. The Public Utility Commission sets retail-rate net metering as the default.
- Retail-rate net metering (10 kW limit)
- Green Mountain Power battery lease program
- Property tax exemption on solar added value
- Efficiency Vermont rebates for heat pump + solar combinations
Incentive programs change frequently. Verify current offerings at dsireusa.org or directly with your utility before making any purchasing decision.
How We Calculate Vermont Solar ROI
These estimates use the same methodology as our interactive solar ROI calculator, applied to Vermont-specific data:
System cost
$2.95/W installed
LBNL Tracking the Sun 2024
Solar production
1,180 kWh/kW/yr
NREL PVWatts v8
Electricity rate
21.5¢/kWh
EIA Residential Rates 2025
Rate escalation
2.5%/year
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2024
Panel degradation
0.5%/year
NREL (Jordan & Kurtz, median)
System lifetime
25 years
Standard warranty period
No Section 25D (federal residential solar credit) is included — it expired December 31, 2025. State incentives are not reflected in these pre-computed figures; use the interactive calculator to enter specific rebate amounts.
Calculate With Your Actual Numbers
The figures above use statewide averages. Enter your actual monthly bill, any Vermont rebate amounts, and your offset target in our interactive calculator for a personalized estimate.
Frequently Asked Questions — Solar in Vermont
Compare Other States
Estimates are based on NREL PVWatts v8 production data, EIA 2025 electricity rates, and LBNL 2024 installed cost benchmarks. Actual savings vary by roof pitch, shading, utility rate structure, and local permit costs. This is not financial advice. Consult a licensed solar installer before making any purchasing decision.