Free Calculator · 2026 Updated
Solar ROI Calculator
Is solar still worth it after the 30% federal tax credit expired? Find your payback period and 25-year savings using real NREL production data and current state rates.
Your Home Details
Find this on your latest utility bill
Rate: 29.8¢/kWh · Solar: 1,700 kWh/kW/yr
100% = cover your entire bill; 80% = common for net-metering
Check DSIRE (dsireusa.org) for your state’s current incentives
No federal 30% tax credit. Section 25D (residential solar ITC) expired December 31, 2025. This calculator does not include it. State/utility rebates may still apply above.
Estimates based on NREL PVWatts v8 production data and EIA 2025 electricity rates. Actual savings vary by shading, roof orientation, utility rate structure, and local permit costs. Get quotes from licensed installers before making any financial decision.
Solar in 2026: What Changed When Section 25D Expired
For most of the past decade, the residential solar tax credit (Section 25D of the Internal Revenue Code) let homeowners deduct 30% of their solar installation cost from their federal tax bill. A $20,000 system effectively cost $14,000 after the credit. That credit expired December 31, 2025.
This doesn’t mean solar is no longer worth it — it means the math changed. Instead of a quick 5–7 year payback, many homeowners now face 8–12 year paybacks. Whether that’s acceptable depends on your electricity rate, your state’s incentives, and how long you plan to stay in your home.
States with high rates and strong net metering — California (29.8¢/kWh), Connecticut (29.5¢/kWh), Massachusetts (28.2¢/kWh) — still offer compelling economics. States with cheap power and weak net metering laws face a harder case.
How This Calculator Works
The calculator uses four inputs to model your solar economics:
- Monthly electric bill: Used to calculate your annual kWh consumption at your state's average rate.
- State: Pulls NREL PVWatts annual production factor (kWh/kW/year) and EIA average electricity rate.
- Offset target: 100% means sizing the system to cover your whole bill. 80% is common where net metering pays below retail.
- State/utility rebate: Subtracted directly from gross cost. Check DSIRE for your state's current programs.
The year-by-year model applies 0.5% annual panel degradation (NREL median for residential systems) and 2.5% annual electricity rate escalation (EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2024). System cost defaults to $2.95/W based on LBNL’s Tracking the Sun 2024 report.
What Incentives Still Exist in 2026?
Although Section 25D is gone, several meaningful incentive categories remain:
30% credit up to $1,000 for Level 2 EV charger hardware — not solar, but relevant if you're installing both.
Applies to leases and PPAs where the installer owns the system. This is why third-party solar still advertises a tax benefit — it flows to them, not you.
California SGIP, NY-Sun, Massachusetts SMART, and dozens of utility rebate programs are still active. Check DSIRE (dsireusa.org) for your state.
Policies vary. Full retail net metering (NEM 2.0 in California) is different from avoided-cost net metering. Ask your utility before sizing a system for 100% offset.